MPC Review

Silence Is the RBI’s Strongest Signal This Week

With rates on hold and markets already speculating far ahead, the Reserve Bank’s best contribution may be to resist the temptation to explain the future.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 5, 2026 at 2:29 PM IST

MPC Review

Liquidity Is Plenty, Confidence Is Scarce

Despite deep easing and ample liquidity, markets signal stress. Transmission has stalled, making confidence, not rates, the binding constraint.

Madhavi Arora

February 5, 2026 at 5:29 AM IST

Juvaida Khatun/Istock

MPC Review

RBI’s Easiest Decision May Be to Do Nothing

RBI likely to hold rates steady as growth holds firm and risks shift offshore

K. Srinivasa Rao

February 5, 2026 at 3:13 AM IST

Briefing

The Imperatives of a Warsh Fed

Kevin Warsh’s Fed would not rewrite doctrine but would enforce imperatives: restore rate primacy, shrink the balance sheet, and let markets price risk again.

V Thiagarajan

February 5, 2026 at 2:48 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI’s Rate-Cut Problem Is Not the Cut — It Is the Plumbing

India’s rate cuts are failing to move bond yields because the liquidity plumbing is broken, forcing markets to follow overnight rates rather than RBI signals.

D. Tripati Rao and Ritesh Gupta

February 4, 2026 at 6:43 AM IST

MPC Review

When Monetary Space is Spent Too Early

Markets are reacting less to fiscal arithmetic and more to a policy sequence that has left limited monetary room just as pressures build.

R. Gurumurthy

February 4, 2026 at 5:18 AM IST

US Tariff Reset May Cut India’s Effective Trade Burden to Low Teens - BofA

BasisPoint Insight

February 3, 2026 at 11:54 AM IST

Banking Cannot Be Treated as Another Asset Class

Private equity supplies capital, not conscience, and banking regulation cannot rest on market optimism.

Srinath Sridharan

February 3, 2026 at 2:27 AM IST

Emerging Markets – From Vulnerability to Resilience

Emerging markets are defying their old risk-on fragility as stronger policies, steadier currencies, and investor flows reshape how global shocks transmit.

Michael Debabrata Patra

February 1, 2026 at 2:38 AM IST

Why Jerome Powell Had to Say No

If the public comes to believe that the central bank will tolerate somewhat higher inflation for political ends, firms will start raising prices in advance. The result will just be higher inflation. Breaking this political-monetary cycle is a key reason why Congress created an independent central bank.

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich

January 15, 2026 at 3:11 PM IST

White House

Why Are Our Markets Behind the Curve?

Despite strong macro fundamentals, Indian markets lag peers. Global rotation, AI exuberance and timing gaps may explain the disconnect, hinting at a delayed rebound.

Michael Debabrata Patra

January 1, 2026 at 3:46 AM IST

Amey Bane/iStockphoto.com

India’s Bond Market Is No Longer Listening to the RBI

Rate cuts, benign inflation and strong growth optics should have eased yields. The bond market’s refusal to comply is a warning of deeper structural fault lines.

Madhavi Arora

December 18, 2025 at 6:05 AM IST

Will Customer Ever be the King in India?

Despite RBI’s call for customer-first policies, rising complaints highlight gaps in service. Can better training, tech tools, and accountability improve India’s banking experience?

Alpana Killawala

December 15, 2025 at 2:45 PM IST

iStock.com

Opinion

A Year of Recalibration at Mint Street

Governor Malhotra’s first year at the RBI brought cleaner rules, quieter reversals, and a distinct shift in tone as the technocrat adjusted to the institution’s rhythm.

Kalyan Ram

December 11, 2025 at 5:25 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Are We in the Goldilocks Scenario?

India’s Goldilocks moment looks enticing, yet surging growth and vanishing inflation signal a fragile equilibrium, a lull before the storm.

Mridul Saggar

December 10, 2025 at 10:03 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

MPC Moves Signal the Arrival of a Post-Cycle Policy Regime

Below-target disinflation, a structural liquidity pivot, and the RBI’s sharp separation of stance from liquidity signal a new level of complexity that requires a post-cycle reading.

Kalyan Ram

December 10, 2025 at 7:01 AM IST

Monetary Policy

MPC Signals Maturity as Policy Counters Shocks with Confidence

India’s MPC breaks from old precautionary playbooks, using countercyclical policy and clearer signalling to steady growth, inflation and financial stability.

Ashima Goyal

December 8, 2025 at 3:30 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Monetary Policy

December Cut for Inflation, a February Cut for Growth

India’s December cut signalled entrenched disinflation, yet weakening growth may force another move in February as liquidity and demand slip.

Yield Scribe

December 8, 2025 at 2:34 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI policy: Goldilocks, FX, and the Windscreen

A rare Goldilocks mix of strong growth and ultra-low inflation set the stage for a finely balanced policy call, even as a sliding rupee tested the RBI’s nerve.

Vivek Kumar

December 7, 2025 at 5:48 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

India’s ‘Goldilocks’ Moment: Stabilising Sentiment in a Hyper-Volatile World

Goldilocks isn’t just a fairy tale; it’s India’s economic mood right now—“just right,” and more fragile than we think.

Kirti Tarang Pande

December 6, 2025 at 7:35 AM IST

iStock.com

Back to the Future – The Tokyo Drift

A look at Japan and China shows how familiar policy instincts can trap economies in slow-growth loops, even when policymakers believe they know better.

V Thiagarajan

December 6, 2025 at 7:06 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

Markets Have the Rupee-Wheel, RBI Keeps the Brakes

RBI will not defend rupee levels, only volatility. For India Inc, the message is blunt: hedge systematically and stop assuming a central-bank safety net.

Babuji K

December 6, 2025 at 3:57 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Dovish Turn Clouds the Story of India’s Goldilocks Economy

Accommodative push contrasts with claims of strong growth and benign inflation

Dhananjay Sinha

December 5, 2025 at 3:27 PM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Rate Cut Shows Rupee is No Obstacle to Easing

The MPC cut rates despite the rupee’s wobble, signalling what policy has long implied. The currency is simply not a factor in the RBI’s rate calculus.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 2:12 PM IST

Monetary Policy

MPC Gets the Flexible Inflation Targeting Mandate Right

The MPC’s well-timed rate cut showed rare institutional clarity, reaffirming its inflation-targeting mandate and restoring flexibility to policy.

Sujit Kumar

December 5, 2025 at 1:06 PM IST

Juvaida Khatun/Istock

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Quiet Hawkishness Behind a Compelled Rate Cut

A dovish rate cut on the surface masks a quiet hawkishness, as the RBI calibrates policy with a cautious eye on reflating a low-inflation economy.

R. Gurumurthy

December 5, 2025 at 11:37 AM IST

Opinion

Malhotra Keeps Rate Cuts in Play, but Will He Move Again?

Governor Malhotra kept the easing cycle alive on Friday, yet his real objective may be to extract transmission rather than commit to another cut.

Kalyan Ram

December 5, 2025 at 11:06 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

MPC Review

Policy Reflects Growth Concerns

Repo cut and liquidity infusion signalled the RBI’s deeper worry that growth momentum is softening despite strong headline numbers.

Rupa Rege Nitsure

December 5, 2025 at 8:48 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Goodbye Inflation, See You in Next Cycle

The RBI’s rate cut reflects the end of an inflation cycle that began in 2022 and collapsed spectacularly in 2025.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Cuts Rates, Reading Softness Beneath the 8.2% Shine

RBI cut rates despite 8.2% growth, signalling it sees early softening beneath the headline and is using rare disinflation space to steady momentum and cool yields.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 5:17 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Monetary Policy

RBI Must Avoid June’s Missteps as Stance and Signals Take Centre Stage

The RBI’s December review must prioritise clear signalling and avoid June’s mistakes.

Richard Fargose

December 4, 2025 at 5:28 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Rupee Dilemma: The Case for Strategic Silence

RBI’s reticence, even as the rupee slips past 90, has unsettled markets. But sometimes, saying more only compounds the problem.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 4, 2025 at 4:30 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Malhotra’s Straight Ball and the Shot Market Played

Markets may have rushed to read a rate-cut signal in the RBI Governor’s recent interview, only for the GDP surprise to challenge their certainty.

Mint Owl

December 2, 2025 at 2:28 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

Why OMOs Matter in This MPC

In a cycle where the headlines flatter to deceive, the liquidity stance, even more than the repo rate action, will do the heavy lifting.

Madhavi Arora

December 1, 2025 at 9:26 AM IST

Monetary Policy

A Rate Cut Now Could Strengthen India’s Growth Cushion

With inflation at historic lows and growth surprising on the upside, the RBI may opt for a calibrated repo rate cut to protect India’s global position.

K. Srinivasa Rao

December 1, 2025 at 7:02 AM IST

Central Banking

The Basel Consensus Is Cracking

Diverging US and global views on bank supervision are testing Basel III’s future. With oversight easing in Washington, the world waits to see if prudence holds.

Howard Davies

November 28, 2025 at 12:36 PM IST

Wladyslaw/ Via Wikicommon

Monetary Policy

Crawling Rupee, Creeping Risks on the RBI’s December Tightrope

A deceptive macro calm hides real fragilities, leaving the RBI heading into this review with plenty of room to misstep.

R. Gurumurthy

November 27, 2025 at 6:33 AM IST

Poonam Gupta's tweet

Import Visibility Needed to Complete India’s Edible Oils Data Reform

Monthly production reporting is useful, but without visibility on import contracts, policy timing will remain reactive rather than anticipatory.

G. Chandrashekhar

November 25, 2025 at 9:52 AM IST

RBI Must Not Let Go of Its Communications Rhythm

Some of the RBI’s strongest communication practices are slipping out of view. A steadier rhythm would strengthen both access and expectations.

Mint Owl

November 25, 2025 at 2:38 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Malhotra’s RBI: Between Freedom and Friction

Malhotra completes his first year at the RBI next month. His tenure so far reveals a governor intent on pushing boundaries, loosening rules, and learning where freedom ends and systemic risk begins.

R. Gurumurthy

November 17, 2025 at 6:11 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

When Inflation Disappears, Policy Loses its Compass

With inflation collapsing to a record low and tracking below 2% for 2025–26, India’s policy dilemma has flipped. The challenge now is not restraining prices but recalibrating a framework built for an inflationary past.

Madhavi Arora

November 13, 2025 at 3:49 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

Inflation Targeting Needs Flexibility, Not Unanimity

When monetary consensus turns to groupthink, inflation targeting risks losing its flexibility—and its purpose.

Ashima Goyal

November 13, 2025 at 2:35 AM IST

Retail Inflation Hits Record Low in Current Series, To Test RBI’s Statement on Space For Rate Cut

BasisPoint Insight

November 12, 2025 at 12:25 PM IST

Building New Financial Institutions for Sustained Growth

To achieve 8–9% sustained GDP growth, India must build new banks, deepen NBFC capacity, and widen credit access beyond the current few institutions.

K. Srinivasa Rao

October 29, 2025 at 8:09 AM IST

iStock.com

Interview

Calm Hands Steer India Through Policy Storms

Dr. Michael Patra’s new book reveals the inner theatre of India’s central banking—from crisis firefighting to quiet reforms.

Kalyan Ram

October 27, 2025 at 4:56 AM IST

Monetary Policy

MPC’s New Voice Speaks the Old Grammar of Caution

Indranil Bhattacharyya’s debut echoes the RBI’s old grammar of caution—clear in logic, yet padded with the rhetorical crutches it didn’t need.

BasisPoint Groupthink

October 17, 2025 at 1:19 PM IST

Briefing

Myth of Currency Debasement

Markets often mistake monetary flexibility for monetary decay. The greater risk lies in misreading cycles as signs of systemic erosion.

V Thiagarajan

October 12, 2025 at 4:16 PM IST

Opinion

Gold’s Rational Resilience in an Irrational World

For central banks, gold is not a relic of history but a rational hedge against the politics for & of money, the fragility of debt, and the unpredictability of power.

Srinath Sridharan

October 12, 2025 at 3:33 PM IST

Screengrab from "RBI Unlocked: Beyond the Rupee" series (JioHotstar)

Opinion

Reading Sanjay Malhotra’s Silent Dialogue

India’s newest central banker reveals more than he says in his latest MPC press conference. Beneath his composure lies a technocrat negotiating with himself.

Kirti Tarang Pande

October 6, 2025 at 5:37 AM IST

Guardrails Key as India Pushes Rupee Abroad

India’s rupee push is bold—but trade gaps, credit risks, and shallow liquidity mean guardrails are key for lasting internationalisation.

Quixotic Banker

October 4, 2025 at 12:28 PM IST

Monetary Policy

Risk-Based Premiums Must Lead to Higher Bank Deposit Insurance Coverage

RBI’s move to risk-based deposit insurance aligns premiums with bank risk, rewarding good banks and enabling higher protection for depositors.

Mint Owl

October 3, 2025 at 6:18 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Anchors Inflation as Growth Levers Shift Beyond Rates

RBI has anchored long-term inflation expectations, but with growth slipping, non-rate levers now hold the key to sustaining momentum.

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

October 3, 2025 at 4:17 AM IST

Monetary Policy

India’s Economic Balancing Act Faces Tariff and Oil Test

RBI and government reforms aim to cushion growth, but crude and tariff shocks could tip India’s economy off its precarious tightrope.

Alok Kumar Mishra

Iti Vyas

October 2, 2025 at 11:55 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Unguarded Lending Won’t Fix Investment Demand

RBI holds rates but eases bank lending curbs—IPO, M&A, securities finance. Yet without investment demand or PPP reforms, such a leeway won’t fix growth.

TK Arun

October 2, 2025 at 11:53 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Baby Steps on Rupee Globalisation: Useful Nudges, But…

Recent announcements set the stage for rupee globalisation, but true scale awaits deeper trade and market adoption.

R. Gurumurthy

October 2, 2025 at 10:34 AM IST

Photo by Patrick Hendry on Unsplash

Monetary Policy

RBI Fixes its June Communication Misfire

The October review showed that central banking is about shaping expectations, not exhausting firepower upfront.

Mint Owl

October 2, 2025 at 9:39 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Monetary Policy

Review of MPC Decision: What Does it Mean to be Forward-Looking?

Is it forward-looking to let policy be decided by base effects, rather than encouraging the anchoring of inflation expectations at the target?

Ashima Goyal

October 1, 2025 at 5:26 PM IST

WRAP

Partly Monetary Policy, Largely Credit Policy

RBI holds repo rate at 5.5% but turns back to credit policy playbook, spurring lending while leaving December wide open for rate cuts.

BasisPoint Groupthink

October 1, 2025 at 12:22 PM IST

Poonam Gupta's tweet

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Insulated Optimism Jars with Ground Reality

The central bank’s upbeat narrative of resilience overlooks stagnant earnings, weak credit demand, and intensifying global risks.

Dhananjay Sinha

October 1, 2025 at 11:39 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

Banks Poised to Challenge NBFCs As RBI Unshackles Restrictions

RBI relaxes capital market lending, acquisition financing norms and higher share lending limits for banks after decades of restrictions

Krishnadevan V

October 1, 2025 at 10:10 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Is the Hunt for a Terminal Repo Rate a Distraction?

Markets may be too eager to bottom-fish for a terminal repo rate. In today’s fluid context, flexibility could matter more than fixation.

Kalyan Ram

October 1, 2025 at 9:34 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Breaks Old Orthodoxy with Regulatory Measures

By dismantling outdated restrictions and aligning banks with global norms, the RBI signals a bold break from decades of financial orthodoxy.

Sachin Malhotra

October 1, 2025 at 9:11 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Reopens the Door to Accommodation

By keeping the repo unchanged yet signalling policy space, RBI corrects June’s misstep and restores credibility to its accommodative posture.

Kalyan Ram

October 1, 2025 at 8:31 AM IST

Screengrab

Monetary Policy

RBI Reopens Rate Door, December Cut Alive

RBI held repo at 5.5%, stance neutral. Malhotra kept powder dry, with inflation benign and growth risks making December a live meeting.

BasisPoint Insight

October 1, 2025 at 5:16 AM IST

Screengrab from a RBI Press Conference

Monetary Policy

No Matter What MPC Does, RBI Communication has to do Some Heavy Lifting

RBI’s biggest challenge is not what it does on rates, but how it explains the why, why not and what next to markets and the wider economy.

Mint Owl

September 30, 2025 at 12:34 PM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

Time for RBI to Recount, Reset

Beyond the rate call, the October review must recount what has been done, what was achieved, and set the compass for policy in the year ahead.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 30, 2025 at 10:23 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Must Cut Rates Now, Not Wait Until December

With inflation collapsing, growth momentum set to fade, and the rupee a shock absorber, the RBI must cut rates in October, not wait till December.

Madhavi Arora

September 30, 2025 at 5:17 AM IST

Screengrab from a RBI Press Conference

Monetary Policy

Benign Inflation, External Risks Keep Rate-Cut Debate Open, But for December

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to hold the repo rate at 5.50% on Wednesday, with inflation undershooting forecasts and US tariffs clouding growth prospects. Analysts see a dovish pause, while keeping the option of another rate cut later this year.

BasisPoint Insight

September 30, 2025 at 4:13 AM IST

Screengrab of RBI press conference

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Stay on Hold in October to Preserve Stability

With inflation subdued and growth resilient but external shocks looming, the RBI’s wisest move in October is to pause and preserve stability.

N. Srinivasa Rao

September 30, 2025 at 4:01 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Monetary Policy Should Look Beyond Repo Rate Cut

RBI’s 100 bps repo cut has lowered EMIs for existing borrowers, but new loans remain costlier. Liquidity gaps, sticky deposits, and high bond yields stall full transmission.

K. Srinivasa Rao

September 26, 2025 at 11:12 AM IST

Monetary Policy

India’s Wage Malaise Leaves RBI Little Room to Hide

With inflation subdued and nominal growth slipping, structural reforms and monetary easing must work together. The October policy is a test of intent.

Yield Scribe

September 23, 2025 at 6:42 AM IST

iStock.com

Briefing

Rupee on a Leash: RBI’s Dictated Depreciation Strategy

The rupee’s path is less about macro forces and more about RBI’s silent hand, steering it lower while guarding stability with tight control.

V Thiagarajan

September 14, 2025 at 6:33 AM IST

State Bond Glut is Breaking Monetary Transmission

Excess supply of state government bonds is distorting markets, widening spreads, and choking the Reserve Bank’s monetary transmission.

Yield Scribe

September 3, 2025 at 7:40 AM IST

Nominal Weakness Tells the Real Story for RBI

Headline GDP growth flatters to deceive. Weak nominal expansion and tariff shocks mean the RBI must maintain an easing bias.

BasisPoint Insight

September 1, 2025 at 7:12 AM IST

iStock.com

Book Review

God Laughs, Markets Listen, and the Reddyisms that Still Resonate

From wit and ambiguity to humility and integrity, YV Reddy’s new book shows why values matter more than plans in an uncertain world.

Kalyan Ram

August 31, 2025 at 4:45 AM IST

Why Credit Growth Remains Tepid in India

Healthy balance sheets can’t offset muted demand as higher real rates and global headwinds weigh on investment appetite.

Rudra Sensarma

August 30, 2025 at 5:35 AM IST

File Photo

Does Climate Change Matter for Monetary Policy Decisions?

Climate shocks are reshaping inflation, growth, and financial stability. For the RBI, integrating climate risks into monetary policy is no longer optional.

Hemachandra Padhan

August 24, 2025 at 8:44 AM IST

iStock.com

Fed Enters RBI Debate as Singh Flags Global Linkages

BasisPoint Insight

August 21, 2025 at 2:44 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

RBI’s October Call Hinges on Transmission, Tariffs and a Swing Voter

August MPC minutes show caution but not closure. With Ranjan wavering, the RBI keeps cuts alive while waiting on data, tariffs, and transmission.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 20, 2025 at 2:42 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

India’s Bond Market Faces Harsh Reality as Fiscal Pressures Mount

GST rationalisation gives growth a fiscal lifeline but deepens deficit fears, leaving India’s bond market trapped in a “higher for longer” yield cycle.

Yield Scribe

August 19, 2025 at 4:00 AM IST

iStock.com

The RBI’s Curious Attachment to a Benchmark That Hardly Trades

The RBI’s liquidity panel sticks with WACR as its policy anchor, even though the market it reflects is shrinking fast. Reform? Or regulatory nostalgia?

R. Gurumurthy

August 8, 2025 at 6:43 AM IST

RBI Pauses, Rightly, But October May Cut Through Uncertainty

RBI holds repo with a neutral stance, but October policy could pivot if growth slows or tariffs bite.

N. Srinivasa Rao

August 7, 2025 at 12:39 PM IST

Interview

PM Adviser Sanyal Bats for Process Reforms, Plays Down Trump’s Jibes

Sanjeev Sanyal says India’s growth is intact, urges process reforms, and calls TCS layoffs part of healthy tech churn.

Krishnadevan V

August 7, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Growth Hopes Mask Limits of Policy Easing

The RBI’s optimism on growth belies structural weaknesses and hints that the impact of front-loaded rate cuts may already be waning.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 6, 2025 at 2:14 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

Monetary Policy in Graphic Detail

RBI hits pause on rate cuts as inflation rises and global risks grow. A visual dive into how policy, growth, credit, and liquidity are moving in Malhotra’s first pause.

Richard Fargose

August 6, 2025 at 1:33 PM IST

Monetary Policy Day and the Rent-a-View Economy

When the repo rate stays still, pundits pirouette. On Policy Day, the spectacle isn’t the decision, but the scramble to sound profound.

R. Gurumurthy

August 6, 2025 at 12:06 PM IST

AI Generated

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Premature Stance, Goalpost Shift May Haunt It on Growth

Trump’s tariff assault highlights why the RBI should have stayed accommodative, aiding transmission and preserving flexibility for future shocks.

Kalyan Ram

August 6, 2025 at 10:56 AM IST

AI Generated

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Inflation Vigil Misses Trade Storm Clouds

The central bank’s hawkish turn on core inflation ignores looming growth risks from Trump tariffs and slowing domestic demand.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 6, 2025 at 7:39 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Panel Recommends Retaining Weighted Average Call Rate as Policy Anchor

RBI’s internal group recommends retaining the weighted average call rate as the policy anchor, citing its strong correlation with money market rates and effective signal transmission.

BasisPoint Insight

August 6, 2025 at 7:15 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Glass Half Full, Half Tariff

Trump calls it a ‘dead economy’; the RBI governor answers with monsoon cheer, falling inflation and a festival season pitch for resilience.

BasisPoint Insight

August 6, 2025 at 6:42 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Maintains Rate, Stance; Inflation Projection Tempers Hope of Future Rate Cuts

A 4.9% inflation forecast for April-June 2026 dampens hopes of another rate cut and suggests neutral stance may persist

BasisPoint Insight

August 6, 2025 at 6:40 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Rate Cuts, Trade Shocks, and the Limits of Monetary Signalling

When monetary easing is not matched by credit traction, further rate cuts risk becoming ineffective. In a volatile global and domestic setting, the RBI must safeguard its credibility by acting only where it believes the real economy is ready to respond.

Srinath Sridharan

August 5, 2025 at 7:21 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Monetary Policy

RBI Unlikely to Cut Repo Rate as Focus Turns to Credit Transmission

With inflation cooling and liquidity ample, RBI is set to hold rates and wait for credit transmission before fresh policy moves.

K. Srinivasa Rao

August 4, 2025 at 3:44 AM IST

How Central Banks Jeopardised Their Independence

By expanding their own understanding of their mandate, monetary authorities became caught up in fiscal policy and triggered inflation, precisely what central-bank independence is intended to avert.

Otmar Issing

July 29, 2025 at 4:12 PM IST

US Federal Reserve

The European Central Bank's Monetary-Policy Revolution

In today’s world, it is unrealistic to expect central banks to maintain price stability at all times using conventional tools, particularly when doing so risks significant collateral damage and undermines public trust.

Marcel Fratzscher

July 29, 2025 at 7:52 AM IST

Norbert Nagel/WikiCommons

Through the Glass Darkly: Listing The Known Unknowns

As global risks mount, from volatility in the Russian oil supply to uncertainty over the future of the Fed chair, are we adequately prepared for the coming economic shocks?

Abheek Barua

July 23, 2025 at 10:02 AM IST

Federal Reserve

CRR Deserves More Respect Than Being Reduced to the “New Normal”

By normalising a lower CRR, the RBI risks trivialising a potent policy tool. Clarity, discipline and market signals could all be at stake.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 17, 2025 at 2:15 PM IST

iStock.com

Tariffs and Earnings Slowdown Threaten India’s Market Rally

Relief rally is losing steam as Trump tariffs, slowing profits, and weak policy space cast a shadow over India’s market valuations.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 15, 2025 at 2:42 AM IST

iStock.com/ sreeyashlohiya

Why RBI’s Call Money Benchmark Is Losing Relevance

RBI’s reliance on WACR as its policy anchor is misaligned with market realities. A shift to secured benchmarks like SORR is overdue.

Richard Fargose

July 10, 2025 at 8:49 AM IST

Monetary Transmission Is Both Alive And Dead Like Schrödinger’s Cat

Liquidity is plentiful, rates are low, yet credit growth is muted. Monetary transmission in India remains a paradox that defies easy solutions.

Yield Scribe

July 7, 2025 at 5:13 AM IST

iStock.com

Interview

Tata Or Batata? Nilesh Shah Lays Out India’s Market Mindmap

From HFT to FDI, inflation myths to rupee truth, Nilesh Shah maps India’s market future—in metaphors only he can mint.

BasisPoint Insight

June 26, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

AI Generated

Small Firms, Big Strain: RBI Study Shows Policy Transmission Is Uneven

A new RBI article confirms that monetary policy hits smaller firms harder. Balance sheets matter more than bond yields in driving investment.

BasisPoint Insight

June 25, 2025 at 3:13 PM IST

MPC Minutes Reveal Wobbly Logic Behind the Stance Shift

The June MPC minutes show a committee leaning hard into caution, but its reasoning for abandoning the accommodative stance reveals some puzzling dissonance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 21, 2025 at 4:23 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

Is India’s Current Monetary Policy Easing Cycle Over?

The MPC reverted to a neutral monetary policy stance in June, but a high real policy rate suggests that further easing is warranted to support growth amid subdued inflation and negative output gaps.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

June 14, 2025 at 12:43 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

"Did He Just Say That?" — A Critical Look At Central Bank Communication

Communication is not PR, it is policy. When central banks speak credibly, they can move economies without moving interest rates.

R. Gurumurthy

June 12, 2025 at 6:20 AM IST

iStock.com

A Hawkish 50bps Cut That Spooked The Bond Markets

The central bank’s bold monetary easing has done little to soothe markets, thanks to poor signalling, fears of liquidity tightening, and a muddled message on transmission.

Yield Scribe

June 11, 2025 at 5:20 AM IST

iStock.com/pixelfusion3d

The Monsoon’s Early Promise Is Not Yet A Policy Comfort

Monsoon’s early onset lifted hopes for growth and inflation, but its pause may call for policy caution as rainfall deficits widen.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 10, 2025 at 9:43 AM IST

iStock.com

A Vote Apart, Why Monetary Policy Needs Dissent

Dissent in the RBI’s rate-setting committee is not defiance. It is foresight. As policy turns bold, a lone voice may be asking the right questions.

Sujit Kumar and Rajendra Paramanik*

June 9, 2025 at 12:33 PM IST

iStock.com

RBI’s Abrupt Policy Shift Risks Undermining Its Own Credibility

Markets do not fear rate cuts or hikes. They fear a central bank that shifts stance and floods the system with liquidity before the economy is ready.

Kalyan Ram

June 6, 2025 at 3:09 PM IST

Screengrab from RBI Press Conference

RBI Pushes For Better Rate Transmission, But Structural Frictions Persist

RBI steps up easing with rate and CRR cuts, but uneven liquidity, sticky bank rates, and cautious lending slow real transmission to the economy.

Richard Fargose

June 6, 2025 at 2:49 PM IST

Photo by Patrick Hendry on Unsplash

Monetary Intent And Content Matter, Not Just The Mic

Authority and influence in central banking are earned through judgement, not decibels.

Srinath Sridharan

June 6, 2025 at 12:47 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Frontloads Hyper Accommodation

The RBI’s frontloaded stimulus lifts markets, but its ability to revive growth is constrained by weak income, tepid investment, and global drag.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 6, 2025 at 10:38 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI’s New Dharma: Bold Cuts, Balanced Stance

With its bold cuts in repo rate and CRR, and the shift in stance, the RBI has tried to play its role in pushing growth but has a contingency plan, should things go wrong.

Abheek Barua

June 6, 2025 at 9:49 AM IST

RBI

No Mic For Deputy Governor Gupta In RBI’s Monetary Opera

India’s newest monetary policymaker sat silent through a blockbuster policy. Poonam Gupta’s RBI debut came and went, with barely a word.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 6, 2025 at 8:13 AM IST

Screengrab of RBI press conference

Monetary Policy

Operation Frontload: RBI Fires All Weapons, Then Calls For Peace

RBI unleashed a surprise rate-and-liquidity barrage, then changed stance to neutral. Was this pre-emption, or a response to unseen threats?

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 6, 2025 at 7:26 AM IST

PIB

Monetary Policy

RBI Surprises With 50 bps Rate Cut, But Signals Long Pause Ahead

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to shift its stance to neutral from accommodative signals that the door to further cuts remains open but the threshold to cut again has risen.

BasisPoint Insight

June 6, 2025 at 4:46 AM IST

Monetary Policy Or Market Theatre? When Headlines Front-Run The RBI

Overconfident headlines and speculative forecasts risk distorting monetary policy deliberations and undermining institutional credibility.

Srinath Sridharan

June 2, 2025 at 8:20 AM IST

IStock.com

Monetary Policy In A Schrödinger’s Economy

RBI must tread carefully in a Schrödinger’s economy, where outcomes stay indeterminate until observed, demanding reactive policy moves.

Vivek Kumar

June 2, 2025 at 6:41 AM IST

India’s Growth Pops, But RBI Still Has Reasons To Cut Rates

A 7.4% GDP print in January–March 2025 flatters India’s outlook. With consumption weak and real rates high, RBI can still ease to lift growth.

Yield Scribe

June 1, 2025 at 5:59 AM IST

Interview

Rangarajan Says India Must Not Dilute 3% Fiscal Deficit Cap

Rangarajan warns against replacing India’s 3% deficit anchor, saying it risks crowding out private investment and raising interest rates.

Kalyan Ram

May 30, 2025 at 4:40 PM IST

RBI Need Not Rush To 5% As Liquidity Does The Heavy-Lifting

The RBI has uncoupled its stance from liquidity. That may make aggressive rate cuts less likely, even if monetary conditions stay easy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 19, 2025 at 5:56 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Soft CPI Anchors Rate Cut Hopes, Narrows Path To 5.00% Terminal

April’s disinflation surprise resets the debate around where the rate cycle ends and how soon it gets there

Richard Fargose

May 14, 2025 at 2:03 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

RBI’s ‘Stance’ Is Still Standing; But Should It Be Retired For Good?

The RBI clings to its ambiguous stance on monetary policy. In a world demanding clarity, is it still useful, or merely an obstacle to transparency?

Abheek Barua

May 8, 2025 at 1:32 AM IST

Policy Rate Cuts Cannot Flow Freely With High Savings Scheme Rates

High small savings rates are distorting financial signals, muting policy transmission, and placing an avoidable burden on government finances.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 6, 2025 at 1:13 PM IST

Via WikiCommons

LAF, SDF, MSF - Gupta’s Learning Curve Begins With ABCs Of WACR Vs SORR

The new RBI deputy governor takes charge amid a fluid framework and the push to convert surplus liquidity into transmission. It is more than the alphabet soup of acronyms that confronts her.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 3, 2025 at 4:25 AM IST

Poonam Gupta Takes Charge As RBI Deputy Governor, To Oversee Monetary Policy

Poonam Gupta’s tenure begins as the RBI undertakes a crucial review of its liquidity management framework.

BasisPoint Insight

May 2, 2025 at 9:15 AM IST

Interview

RBI Has Ample Room To Cut Rates Further, Says MPC’s Saugata Bhattacharya

RBI models showed repo rate at 5.1-5.7%. The MPC member says he leans more towards the lower end of that range.

Rajesh Mahapatra

May 2, 2025 at 4:22 AM IST

Liquidity: Sterilisation, Caution, Or Doubling Down?

FX book chickens come home to roost in 2025-26, and the RBI’s liquidity injections may need to grow even larger to avoid a fresh policy transmission hiccup.

Vivek Kumar

May 1, 2025 at 3:49 AM IST

RBI’s Dovish Turn Comes With A Built-In Speed Bump

The April minutes cement the RBI’s pivot to growth, but Bhattacharya’s caveats point to a stop-start easing path—one markets are willing to live with.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 23, 2025 at 2:16 PM IST

Growth Trumps Inflation in RBI’s April Minutes

With global shocks mounting, MPC minutes reveal deep concern over India’s growth path. Rate cut, dovish stance and liquidity flood now fully explained.

BasisPoint Insight

April 23, 2025 at 1:14 PM IST

Dancing With Doubt: When The MPC Abandons Certainty For Growth

As Trump’s tariff flip flop continues, the RBI embraces uncertainty with a pivot to dovishness, cutting rates and shifting stance.

Phynix

April 10, 2025 at 3:22 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism Hinges On Questionable Insular Assumptions

Despite warning of trade risks, the central bank proceeds as if India’s economy exists in a vacuum

Dhananjay Sinha

April 9, 2025 at 1:54 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism On Growth Belies Tariff Undercurrent

The central bank’s inflation optimism is justified, but its 2025–26 growth forecast feels increasingly out of touch with trade war disruptions.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 9:28 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Chooses Growth Over Inflation As Tariff War Clouds Intensify

The RBI’s shift to an accommodative stance signals a growth-first approach, but its crisis response still feels too mild for the storm brewing.

Abheek Barua

April 9, 2025 at 7:46 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Monetary Policy

RBI Goes All In On Dovishness, Outdoes Most Dovish Of Pundits

The central bank has done everything the market hoped—and more. What matters now is how far ahead the market decides to run.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 5:46 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

RBI Steps Up Easing Cycle with Another 25 bps Rate Cut, Stance Accommodative

RBI's move reflects the MPC’s view that inflation risks have moderated and that there is a need to address domestic growth amid global uncertainties.

BasisPoint Insight

April 9, 2025 at 5:04 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Monetary Policy

RBI Must Resist Calls To Reopen The Fixed Rate Repo Window

Calls to revive the fixed repo window are gaining ground. The RBI must resist — or risk undoing a decade of hard-won liquidity discipline.

Basis Pundit

April 7, 2025 at 2:44 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Seen Cutting Repo Rate By 25 Bps As Easing Cycle Gains Momentum

Most analysts anticipate a cumulative repo rate reduction of at least 75 bps by March 2026 if inflation remains within the target band.

BasisPoint Insight

April 7, 2025 at 11:45 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Be The Front Soldier After Trump Trade Shock

A seismic tariff shock from the US on April 9 could hijack India’s economic prospects. While this requires a strategic government intervention for risk mitigation, the RBI must be the front soldier to safeguard growth.

Vivek Kumar

April 6, 2025 at 7:59 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Reciprocal Tariffs: Brace For Impact

Should the RBI and indeed all central banks see the current situation as primarily an inflation problem or a growth problem?

Abheek Barua

April 4, 2025 at 7:44 AM IST

Monetary Policy

High Credit-Deposit Ratio Will Dent All RBI Attempts At Rate Transmission

Banks have already committed the bulk of their deposit base to lending, leaving little operational flexibility.

Richard Fargose

March 28, 2025 at 1:44 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Monetary Policy

Fed Pause Gives RBI Breathing Room As Malhotra Weighs Next Move

With Powell unsure and Malhotra new at the helm, the Fed’s pause may buy RBI time to tread carefully amid global and domestic flux.

R. Gurumurthy

March 23, 2025 at 6:15 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Monetary Policy

New Governor Sees Small Space, Squeezes In Rate Cut

Malhotra may have steered the committee towards a cut more for solace than substance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 10, 2025 at 3:40 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

Will RBI’s Acquiescence To Rate-Cut Demand Work?

India’s growth revival deserves structural policy redressal rather than counter-cyclical monetary easing.

Dhananjay Sinha

February 7, 2025 at 1:02 PM IST

Monetary Policy

Malhotra Cuts Repo Rate By 25 BPS In First MPC Meeting, Follows Predecessors

In their first meetings, Malhotra’s predecessors—Shaktikanta Das and Urjit Patel—had also reduced repo rates.

Richard Fargose

February 7, 2025 at 5:20 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy Can’t Take Up The Government’s Slack To Boost Economic Growth

The narrative of reforms in India over the past five years has largely remained just that—a narrative. September 2019 was the last when the central government undertook serious economic measure when it reduced corporate tax rates. Prior to that was the rollout of GST in July 2017. Economy now needs more than just past reforms.

BasisPoint Groupthink

January 30, 2025 at 9:13 AM IST

The Bureau

Equities Benchmarks Snap Three-Day Rally on Profit-Taking

India to Lift US Imports to $100 Billion/Year Under Trade Deal: Indian Express

US Tariff Reset May Cut India’s Effective Trade Burden to Low Teens - BofA

India–US Tariff Deal to Boost Exports, But Energy Risks Linger: Moody’s

Modi–Trump call delivers tariff truce and deeper trade push

US–India Trade Deal Sparks Risk-On Rally Across Asia

India-US Trade Deal: What Happens Next?

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk